By Samantha Delouya, Elisabeth Buchwald, CNN

(CNN) — Greg Bettinelli discovered Pasta Rummo on his honeymoon in Florence in 2002, at a time when the brand was nearly impossible to find in the United States. He and his wife stuffed their suitcases with as much of it as they could carry.

These days, the Italian pasta brand can be bought from major retailers like Target and Whole Foods. Still, Bettinelli is stocking up again, fearing his favorite pasta brand will disappear from American shelves or skyrocket in price when tariffs of more than 100% are set to take effect on over a dozen Italian pasta makers next year.

Bettinelli’s fears aren’t unjustified.

Dozens of grocery staples have gotten pricier this year due to inflation and the Trump administration’s significant tariffs. Even as President Donald Trump moved earlier this month to cut tariffs on some foods to ease costs, they still could chip away at a budget-friendly meal option: a plate of pasta.

If the tariffs go into effect, pasta shipments from the impacted Italian companies would be “virtually wiped out,” warned Coldiretti, the largest farming association in Italy, in a statement translated from Italian. The 13 companies collectively represent 16% of Italian pasta exports to the United States, according to the US Commerce Department.

But if Italian pasta is hit with 107% tariffs, as the Trump administration plans, the fewer options Americans have left could be even more expensive.

“There is no way we can absorb (the tariffs) in our price structure,” said Claudio Constantini, general manager at Pastificio Sgambaro, one of the 13 Italian companies facing tariffs.

Constantini said Sgambaro will try to maintain exports to the US, for now. “But if the picture does not change, it will not work for long,” he said.

Sgambaro, a family-owned company, mostly sells its products in smaller Italian grocers in the United States. But it had hoped to expand in 2026. Constantini said those plans are now in limbo.

“It felt like you were eating outside in Tuscany, but it’s just a $4 pasta,” Bettinelli said of Italian-made pasta. “It was an affordable luxury. Why can’t we have nice things?”

Why are the pasta tariffs so high?

The potential pasta tariffs stem from an antidumping complaint two American companies filed with the US Commerce Department last July. In the complaint, two Midwestern companies, 8th Avenue Food & Provisions and Winland Foods alleged that several Italian companies underpriced pasta that was shipped to the United States.

Winland Foods, which owns 16 different pasta brands, declined to comment; 8th Avenue Food & Provisions, which owns Ronzoni, didn’t respond to CNN.

The complaint prompted an investigation led by the Commerce Department, which began by requesting documentation from two of the 13 Italian companies that were being examined: La Molisana and Pastificio Lucio Garofalo. The two accounted for the largest volume of pasta sales to the United States, according to the department.

The preliminary investigation published by the Commerce Department in September stated that the two companies made sales to the United States “at less than normal value.” It also said both were “uncooperative” during the investigation and provided “incomplete and unreliable” data. (Neither company responded to CNN’s request for comment.)

Because of that, the Commerce Department applied what’s known as an “adverse facts available” antidumping tariff rate, which is essentially based on assumptions about a business under investigation when there isn’t sufficient documentation. In this case, the department decided on a 91% tariff, which would be stacked on top of the current 15% tariff on goods from the European Union, bringing the total rate to 107%.

The actual tariff rate is subject to change depending on the Commerce Department’s final review, which is slated to wrap up on February 18 with a possible extension of up to 60 days, a department official told CNN.

Members of the European Commission reportedly pushed the Trump administration in meetings earlier this week to reconsider pasta tariffs, along with tariffs on other goods from the European Union, according to Politico.

Mounting affordability concerns

The steep tariffs that could soon hit many Italian pasta brands come as the Trump administration faces mounting pressure from voters to address affordability.

Grocery staples, including beef and coffee, have gotten pricier since Trump instituted blanket tariffs on nearly every country’s imports in April. Then this month, the administration rolled back many tariffs on food and agricultural imports, an effort seen as an attempt to improve affordability.

Still, the impending pasta duties may not be tied directly to Trump, despite his disdain for many of the European Union’s trade and business practices.

The president “generally does not get involved” in antidumping investigations, said Thomas Beline, a trade attorney and partner at Cassidy Levy Kent, who previously worked at the Commerce Department and was involved in Italian pasta antidumping investigations.

Furthermore, Italian pasta antidumping investigations are hardly new; the Commerce Department initiated such inspections nearly 30 years ago under President Bill Clinton.

Blame aside, with many Italian pastas on the cusp of potentially becoming pricier, some enthusiasts are already searching for workarounds.

Earlier this month, Costanza Genoese Zerbi, a Long Beach, California, real estate agent, urged her social media followers to make their own pasta as a way to enjoy a higher-quality plate at a more affordable price. On Sunday, she even hosted a pasta-making party for women in her community.

“I think the people who are going to be hurt the most from this are Americans,” Zerbi, who moved to the United States from Italy as a child, said of pasta tariffs. “If you don’t have the richness of foods from all over the world, whether it’s Italy or France or Mexico or Canada, it’s a very sad world.”

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